by Logan Finney, Idaho Reports

It’s no surprise that Idahoans’ vulnerability to wildland fires varies depending on where they live. But finding out that exact level of risk is a bit more tricky.

As state officials discuss what can be done to mitigate the risk of major fires sweeping through Idaho communities, little localized information is available about community-by-community fire risk.

The State of Idaho does not currently maintain or publish a fire risk map for insurance purposes. The closest similar tool found by Idaho Reports is fire risk data from the Department of Lands, available in its Forest Action Plan and last updated in 2020.

“Unlike other models, this model does not establish a probability curve for fire growth or severity, rather it provides a probability of damage in the event of a wildfire,” the Forest Action Plan notes. “All of the data was gathered from open, publicly accessible sources” analyzing land by slope, aspect, vegetation, fire history and wildland-urban interface.

“Major revisions to the Forest Action Plan take place every 10 years, so there will not be any substantial updates to the ‘threats’ and ‘benefits’ and any corresponding maps until 2030,” Department of Lands public information officer Sharla Arledge told Idaho Reports via email. “There is a smaller review every five years, but for 2025 no major changes have been found or proposed for the Forest Action Plan. The 2020 maps still accurately portray our fire-hazard risk and forest-health risk in the state,” Arledge wrote.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency also calculates wildfire risk ratings in its National Risk Index. However, that data only goes down to the county and census tract level. For large rural counties with varied landscapes like Elmore, that risk might vary significantly between Mountain Home and Featherville. FEMA encourages local government agencies to build their own fire models.

The Oregon Statewide Wildfire Hazard Map, for example, was created “to help state agencies prioritize the communities with the highest need for hazard mitigation” using burn probability and fire intensity data. A nonprofit association of state fire agencies has the Southern Wildfire Risk Explorer, a similar fire risk tool for the thirteen southeastern states.

Valley Lookout reported last week that Valley County is considering a fire risk assessment proposal that involves dividing the county into zones based on wildfire risk factors and applying fire-resilient building standards to zones with extreme danger. 

PRIVATE SECTOR CONCERNS

While up-to-date hyper-local public information isn’t widely available in Idaho, the insurance industry has its own metrics on risk that inform its willingness to cover certain areas of the state.

“Our information largely comes from agents or consumers who call us,” Department of Insurance director Dean Cameron said last month on Idaho Reports. “We’re starting to hear from homebuilders and realtors and lenders that they’ve got houses for sale but aren’t able to sell them because the new homeowner can’t find insurance coverage.”

DOI public information specialist Julie Robinson shared with Idaho Reports a list of 23 companies that have submitted nonrenewal notifications to the Department of Insurance for personal insurance policies related to homeowners, fire, dwelling, and similar coverage.

“It’s also challenging depending on the insurance company, because there’s no uniform standard that every company has to follow, a certain modeling that’s being done,” said Cameron. “As fire risk has become more challenging, there are more and more companies doing modeling to predict where forest fires might occur and how they might occur.”

The department has received increasing numbers of nonrenewal requests in the last few years, Robinson said, but most major insurers are still offering coverage. She also noted that companies are not required to report their specific reason for not renewing policies.

“Insurance companies are required to notify the Department of Insurance 120-days in advance of when they intend to block nonrenew or block cancel policies per Idaho Code 41-1841,” Robinson wrote. “However, they are not required to notify the Department if they nonrenew or cancel a specific policyholder (assuming the reason is permissible under Idaho Code), or if they stop writing policies in a specific area of the state.”

Cameron introduced legislation in January that would create a high-risk pool for fire insurance – similar to an existing health insurance pool – as well as a grant program to help Idaho residents harden their homes against fire.

“Two years ago, we had a few carriers saying to us, ‘We’re staying in your state, but we’re not going to sell in parts of Kootenai County, or parts of Blaine County.’ And then that spread, and other carriers were doing more of that,” Cameron said. “They will exclude a specific county or region, or an area where it may be more prone to fire.”

House Business Committee chairman Rep Lance Clow, R-Twin Falls, told Idaho Reports via text on Thursday that the existing DOI bill would be “replaced” with a new version but did not have an estimated hearing date.

Separately, Gov. Brad Little has also proposed $40 million in ongoing funding for wildfire preparedness. We have much more on fire management in the show this week with Lt. Gov. Scott Bedke.

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