By Melissa Davlin, Idaho Reports
On Saturday, President Donald Trump announced he had enacted 25% tariffs on most imported goods from Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10% on goods from China. Those three countries are the United States’ top trading partners, and the tariffs have economists concerned that the move will not only raise prices on groceries and goods, but could harm the overall economy. Those tariffs were set to go into place on Tuesday.
In response, Canadian Prime Minster Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced 25% tariffs on goods from the United States. On Monday, the United States announced a one-month hold on tariffs on Mexican goods while the two countries continued negotiations on how to stop fentanyl smuggling into the United States.
So how might the tariff war affect Idahoans? It isn’t yet clear, but it has the potential to hit Idahoans at the grocery store and in the economy overall.
In 2018, during the first Trump administration, Idaho lost millions due to retaliatory tariffs from Mexico: An estimated $15.4 million in potato exports under a 20% tariff, $14.4 million in cheese and whey due to the 25% tariff, and $1.1 million in export revenue from pork and ham due to an added 20% tariff, said Fabiola McClellan, then-head of Idaho’s Mexico City-based foreign trade office, in a Feb. 2019 press release. Mexico put those tariffs in place in response to the United States placing tariffs on steel and aluminum from Canada and Mexico.
The same press release said overall exports from Idaho to Mexico stayed steady in 2018.
“We are very relieved to see that the numbers have somehow remained even,” McClellan said at the time. “And a lot of that is due to hardworking Idaho companies. … We need to protect our market down there very carefully.”
According to data from Tariffs Hurt the Heartland, a national campaign against tariffs during the first Trump administration, Idaho businesses paid $8.5 million in tariffs in December 2018 alone, which was more than 35 times what businesses paid on those same products in December 2017. That same month, Idaho businesses saw a 15% drop in exports that were subject to retaliatory tariffs in other countries.
Currently, Canada is Idaho’s top export partner, with exports to the country totaling almost $1.5 billion in 2023, the most recent year for which data is available. Food and agriculture products accounted for one fourth of that total, at $383 million, according to the Idaho Department of Commerce.
Idaho also imports a number of goods from Canada, particularly $360 million worth of food and agriculture products in 2023, and $272 million in wood, pulp, and paper products.
In 2023, Idaho imported nearly $169 million worth of goods from Mexico, with food and agriculture accounting for about $68 million of that total, as well as $61.5 million of transportation equipment, according to the Department of Commerce.
Mexico is Idaho’s third largest export partner, with exports to Mexico totaling $284 million in 2023. Food and agriculture accounted for 88% of Idaho’s exports to the country.
Post updated at 10:30 am Monday to reflect tariff announcements from Canadian and Mexican governments.
Melissa Davlin | Host, Lead Producer
Melissa Davlin is the lead producer and host of Idaho Reports. She has covered the Idaho Legislature since 2012. She also produces for Outdoor Idaho and Idaho Experience. Melissa serves as the president of the Idaho Press Club. She has won multiple awards for her work, including a regional Emmy for her documentary on Chinese immigration in Idaho, Idaho Press Club broadcast reporter of the year for 2015 and 2019, the Idaho Press Club First Amendment Award, the University of Idaho Silver and Gold Alumni Award, and the 2019 Boise State University Enhancing Public Discourse award. She lives in Boise with her husband and children.